Early Voting Shows Democratic Advantage in Midterm Elections

One month before the midterm elections, more than 690,000 Americans have already voted in at least 29 states. Data collected through October 1 shows signs of a Democratic advantage in voter mobilization, a trend that polls have been registering since summer.

In several states where key Senate seats and governorships are being contested this November, Democrats represent a larger proportion of those requesting ballots than at this same point in 2024. The trend repeats across different regions of the country, from the Midwest to the East Coast.

In Iowa, Democrats made up 67% of ballot requests, compared to 54% at this point in 2024. In Pennsylvania the figure reached 66% (versus 62%) and in Maine 57% (versus 53%). According to North Carolina’s Election Board, 42% of requests come from Democrats, an increase from 36% two years ago.

What explains the surge in Democratic ballot requests

In all those states except Iowa, ballot requests at this same point in 2022 showed an even greater Democratic lean than the current one. This suggests that this year’s advantage, while real, does not reach the participation levels of the previous midterm elections.

The increase in the proportion of Democratic ballot requests coincides with polling results, special elections, and primary participation. All these indicators suggest that Democrats could arrive more motivated at the polls this November.

However, this could also reflect that Republicans continue to prefer other voting methods, such as voting in person on Election Day. An important caveat: although knowing who voted is public information, the ballot itself is secret. This data does not show how many votes each party received.

Virginia shows the clearest Democratic signal of the cycle

The most favorable signals for Democrats come from Virginia. The state reported, by far, the largest total number of votes in CNN’s count, and is the only one with significant figures for both in-person early voting and mail-in voting.

Although Virginia voters do not register by party affiliation, there is a clear relationship between how a locality voted in 2024 and its early voting pace. Cities and counties that backed former Democratic candidate Kamala Harris by more than 20 points reach 78% of their 2024 participation, while those that voted for Donald Trump by the same margin are barely at 61%.

Two competitive House races in Virginia also point to a Democratic advantage in enthusiasm. Among votes cast so far, participation in Democratic primaries exceeds Republican participation by 15 points in District 1 and by 18 points in District 2, both currently represented by Republicans facing strong rivals: Representatives Rob Wittman and Jen Kiggans.

The limits of early voting data

Voting patterns have changed since the COVID-19 pandemic. Voters age 65 and older represent a growing proportion of those voting by mail: they increased from 27% in 2020 to 31% in 2022 and 37% in 2024, according to CNN exit polls. There are signs that this trend continues this year.

Early voting data only reflects a portion of the electorate, generally older and less Republican than the overall voting population.

The number of votes cast so far represents only a fraction of the approximately 57 million early votes recorded in 2022. The number is expected to grow considerably in the coming weeks as more states open their in-person voting centers.

Republican voters could still narrow the gap as November 3, the deadline to cast a ballot, approaches.

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