Mexican Immigration to the U.S. Falls to Historic Lows

The population born in Mexico living in United States fell 5% between 2010 and 2024. It is the first reduction recorded since 1980, according to an analysis by the Migration Policy Institute. The Census Bureau reported 11.14 million residents born in Mexico in 2024. In 2010, the historic peak had reached 11.71 million. The decline breaks a trend of more than four decades. Still, Mexicans remain the largest immigrant group in the country.

Why is the Mexican population declining?

The MPI report links the decline to fewer irregular border crossings at the southern border. In fiscal year 2025, U.S. authorities intercepted about 238,000 people. It was the lowest figure in 55 years. Of that total, 47% were Mexican citizens. This shows a clear change from previous decades, when migration from Mexico dominated border flows.

Researchers Andrés Ayala and Jeanne Batalova warn that the trend could deepen. They say stricter border and internal controls will accelerate future declines. The Trump administration’s more severe immigration policy also has an impact.

Interior surveillance, deportations, and fear of detention change family and work decisions. In other words, fewer arrivals and more departures explain much of the decline. The phenomenon reflects not just numbers; it also reflects greater legal and social pressure.

What about undocumented Mexican immigrants?

The MPI estimates that as of mid-2023, roughly 5.5 million Mexican immigrants lived without authorization. That figure represents 4 out of every 10 undocumented immigrants in the United States. The total national undocumented population was calculated at 13.7 million. Therefore, Mexico’s weight remains enormous, even though its relative share has begun to decline.

This change matters because the composition of migration is also changing. MPI points out that communities from Central America and South America have grown within the population without papers. This means that the migration debate no longer revolves solely around Mexico.

However, Mexicans continue to be the main face of immigration