Will Becerra Be California’s First Latino Governor?

Democrat Xavier Becerra is shaping up as the favorite to win California’s governorship. A new poll from the Institute of Governmental Studies at the University of California in Berkeley reveals this. The former Health Secretary in the Biden administration leads voter preferences with 55% support.

His Republican rival, Steve Hilton, close to President Donald Trump, receives 37% of voter intent. The 18-point difference places Becerra in a solid position just months before the election. His advancement is notable considering where his campaign started.

Born in Sacramento and of Mexican descent, Becerra prevailed in June over 61 candidates in the Democratic primary. That result catapulted him as the candidate with the most visibility within his party. Now he seeks to capitalize on that momentum with the general electorate.

Before launching his gubernatorial bid, Becerra already had an established political trajectory in California. He served as the state’s attorney general before joining Joe Biden’s cabinet. That previous experience has allowed him to project an image of institutional continuity among Democratic voters.

His profile as the son of Mexican immigrants also resonates at a time of national tension over immigration policies. Although the poll indicates that this factor is not decisive for most of his voters, it does reinforce his symbolic connection with the state’s Latino community.

What the Poll Numbers Reveal

The survey was conducted from August 3-9 among likely California voters. It found that 88% of Democrats support Becerra, while 91% of Republicans back Hilton. Partisan polarization remains firm on both sides of the political spectrum.

Becerra also has majority support among women, African American, and young voters. Interestingly, that support has little to do with his Latino background. Only 1% of those supporting him mention his Mexican ancestry as their reason for voting for him.

Regarding overall perception, 49% of Californians surveyed have a favorable opinion of Becerra. 43% hold the opposite view. Hilton faces a more adverse scenario: 50% view him negatively and just 39% support him.

The Historical Weight of a Potential Victory

If the numbers hold, Becerra could become California’s first Latino governor in more than 150 years. It would be a historic milestone for the Hispanic community in the nation’s most populous state.

The Republican Party has gone two decades without governing California. Their last victory occurred on November 7, 2006, when actor Arnold Schwarzenegger won reelection for a second term. Since then, Democrats have dominated state contests.

According to the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC), Democrats represent 45.3% of registered voters in the state. Republicans barely reach 25.2%. That nearly two-to-one proportion historically favors Democratic candidates.

The Latino Community, Key to the «Golden State»

California is the most populous state in the United States and also its largest economy. Latinos represent approximately 40% of its total population. Californians of Mexican origin, in particular, comprise roughly one-third of the state’s residents.

That demographic weight makes California a relevant political laboratory for the entire Hispanic community across the country. An eventual Becerra victory could set a precedent for future Latino candidacies in other states with large Hispanic populations.

However, analysts caution that polls are not definitive results. There is still ground to cover before November, when Californians finally go to the polls. Hilton’s campaign will seek to reverse the trend in the coming weeks.

What Lies Ahead in the Electoral Contest

Both candidates will intensify their efforts heading into the final stretch of the campaign. Becerra will seek to consolidate his advantage among women, young voters, and African Americans. Hilton, for his part, will bet on mobilizing his conservative base and winning over independents.

The outcome of these elections could have repercussions beyond California. A Democratic victory would reaffirm the party’s dominance in the state over nearly two decades. A Republican triumph, meanwhile, would represent a historic shift.

For the Hispanic community, the electoral process in California is being watched with particular attention. The possibility of a first Latino governor in a century and a half adds a symbolic component to an already consequential contest for the state’s political future.