Who is Winning Between Talarico and Paxton in the Texas Senate Race?

Democrat James Talarico leads for the third consecutive poll over Republican Ken Paxton in the race for the Texas Senate. The most recent survey, from Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, was published on September 15 and places Talarico at 46% versus 43% for Paxton.

An advantage within the margin of error

The three-point difference remains within the poll’s 4-point margin of error. Libertarian Ted Brown received 3% and 8% of Texas voters remain undecided.

The poll was conducted between September 8 and 10 among 625 registered Texas voters. All of them said they are likely to vote in the November general election.

This result confirms a trend that has repeated since August. Most polls place Talarico ahead of Paxton, though almost always within a narrow margin of just a few points.

Who supports each candidate?

According to Mason-Dixon, Talarico has an advantage among women, young voters, African American voters, Hispanic voters, and independents. He wins among women by 16 points (52%-36%) and among voters aged 18 to 34 by 14 points (51%-37%).

Among African American voters, the gap jumps to 75 points (85%-10%). He also leads among Hispanics by 18 points (54%-36%) and among independents by 21 points (51%-30%).

Paxton, on the other hand, concentrates his support among Republicans, white voters, men, and older Texans. He wins among Republicans with 88% versus 5%, among whites with 54% versus 36%, and among men with 51% versus 39%. His best numbers are among voters aged 35 to 49.

The electoral map: rural areas for Paxton, cities for Talarico

By region, Paxton achieves his best result in East Texas, with 58% support. He also dominates in West Texas, where he reaches 52%.

Talarico, on the other hand, leads in urban areas. He is ahead in the Houston metropolitan area with 46%, in Central Texas with 57%, and in South Texas with 54%. In the Dallas-Fort Worth region, both candidates are tied at 45%.

What the August and September polls show

The Mason-Dixon measurement is not an isolated case. This month, two other polls also gave Talarico an advantage. A poll by California Strategies of the South from September 13 placed him at 50% versus 45% for Paxton.

Two days earlier, AARP—the American Association of Retired Persons—published another poll with Talarico at 48% and Paxton at 44%. An N+ Univision poll from September 9 showed a similar result: 48% for Talarico and 43% for Paxton.

In August, five polls were published and most also favored Talarico. The Texas Public Opinion Survey from August 27 gave him 48% versus 42% for Paxton. The exception was the Emerson College Polling survey, conducted in collaboration with Nexstar Media between August 9 and 10 among 1,000 likely voters, which gave Paxton 47% of preferences, just one point ahead of Talarico.

The polling average also reflects this trend. The average of five measurements published by 270toWin places Talarico at 47% and Paxton at 43.6%, a calculation that combines the most recent polls with those from Overton Insights and Texas Public Opinion Research.

What comes before November 3

The contest for the seat currently held by John Cornyn is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in the country. Less than two months remain until the general election.

Texans who have not yet registered to vote have until 30 days before the election to do so, according to state rules. With polls this tight, each new registered voter could determine the final result.