Who Is Winning Between Becerra and Hilton for California Governor?

Democrat Xavier Becerra and Republican Steve Hilton are competing for the governorship of California. The general election is November 3rd in a state with a Democratic majority. The most recent polls show Becerra with an advantage of nearly 20 points over Hilton.

Becerra Maintains a Solid Lead in Polls

A poll by UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, conducted with the Los Angeles Times, places Becerra at 55% support among likely voters. Hilton stands at 37%, while 7% remain undecided.

Political scientist Dan Schnur from the University of Southern California explained to ABC7 that the race «appears completely predictable» because most voters follow their party. Democrats support Becerra and Republicans support Hilton, he said, and Hilton’s challenge is attracting independents.

An earlier NBC4 poll conducted in July showed similar results: 61% for Becerra versus 36% for Hilton. That gap contrasts with the June primary, when Becerra barely edged his Democratic rivals with less than one-third of the total vote.

Becerra’s Financial Advantage Down the Stretch

Fundraising also favors the former Health Secretary. Becerra closed June with more than $6 million in cash, and since then has outpaced Hilton in large donations by more than two to one, according to reports filed with the California Secretary of State’s office.

In the first half of August, Becerra received $1.9 million in contributions of $1,000 or more. Hilton raised $690,000 in the same period and category, according to official records.

Hilton’s spokesman, Héctor Barajas, responded that the Republican campaign has more than 100,000 individual donors. According to Barajas, they are mostly «middle-class families, small business owners, and people struggling to make ends meet.»

Two Trajectories, Two Proposals to Lower Cost of Living

Becerra, 68, is the son of Mexican parents and grew up in Sacramento. He was California’s Attorney General between 2017 and 2021, a period when he repeatedly sued Donald Trump’s first administration. He also headed the Department of Health and Human Services under President Joe Biden.

If he wins in November, Becerra would be California’s first Latino governor since 1875. His platform includes freezing home insurance premiums and utility rates, though analysts question whether he has the legal authority to accomplish this without the Legislature.

Hilton, 57, was born in London and became a U.S. citizen in 2021. He worked as an adviser to former British Prime Minister David Cameron and later as a presenter on Fox News, where he aligned his discourse with the MAGA movement.

Trump, a Double-Edged Endorsement for Hilton

President Trump endorsed Hilton in April, a backing that represents a double-edged sword. Less than one-third of Californians approve of Trump’s leadership, according to polls cited by local media.

That’s why Hilton has launched ads targeting voters who reject the sitting president. «I understand that perhaps you hate Trump, MAGA, or whatever,» he says in one of his campaign videos, according to ABC7 San Francisco.

Hilton blames Democratic management in Sacramento, not Trump, for California’s high cost of living and housing shortage. He proposes eliminating taxes on the first $150,000 of income and lowering gas prices to $3 per gallon.

The Legislative Challenge Any Winner Would Face

To fund his proposals, Hilton proposes cutting $25 billion from state spending. This would include reducing the workforce