Tropical Storm Bertha Set to Form Soon in Gulf of Mexico

Tropical Depression Two in the Gulf of Mexico is about to become tropical storm Bertha. The system is moving slowly off the northern coast of the Gulf and has already prompted tropical storm alerts for Florida’s Panhandle and areas of Louisiana. Although it is not expected to reach hurricane strength, it could bring heavy rainfall, coastal flooding, and tropical storm-force winds from Florida to Texas.

Where could Bertha form and what areas are under alert?

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) reported that the center of the depression is located south of Florida’s coast, in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. Its maximum sustained winds are around 45 km/h, and for now, the system is moving very slowly, which favors rain accumulations over the same region.

A tropical storm alert remains in effect for Florida’s Panhandle. The monitored area extends from the Ochlockonee River westward to near the border between Florida, Alabama, and Mississippi. Authorities warn that additional alerts could be issued further west, along the Louisiana coast and northern Texas coast, if the system moves into that area.

The NHC forecasts that Tropical Depression Two will strengthen into tropical storm Bertha between Monday night and Tuesday. It would be the second named storm of the Atlantic season, after Arthur, which made landfall in Texas in mid-June.

What trajectory is expected and what limits its strengthening?

Although Gulf waters are near record temperatures, the system faces several obstacles to organizing. There is dry air aloft and very broad circulation, which hinders the formation of persistent thunderstorms near the center. Additionally, an increase in wind shear is expected—the change in wind speed and direction at upper levels—which typically weakens tropical cyclones.

The models agree on a general track along the northern Gulf of Mexico coast. The most likely scenario is that Bertha moves slowly near southeastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi. Afterward, it would make landfall as a tropical storm or depression over Louisiana. Later, its remnants could advance toward the northern Texas coast by late weekend, as a tropical depression or remnant system.

The NHC and independent specialists estimate a peak intensity near 50 or 60 mph (80 to 95 km/h) of sustained winds, typical of a moderate tropical storm. The combination of nearby land and hostile upper-level winds makes it very unlikely that Bertha will become a hurricane.

What impacts are expected in rain, wind, and storm surge?

Although Bertha is a low-intensity storm, its effects can be significant. Widespread rainfall accumulations of between 2 and 4 inches are forecast, with peaks of up to 8 inches in areas where stronger bands form. The areas at greatest risk extend from western Florida’s Panhandle to southern Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and possibly the northern Texas coast.

Those rains can trigger flash flooding, especially in low-lying urban areas such as New Orleans and other coastal cities. Emergency services are asking residents to avoid flooded streets, check drainage systems, and follow evacuation orders if issued in flood-prone areas.

Regarding wind, tropical storm conditions are expected in the monitored area, with sustained winds exceeding 40 mph and stronger gusts in the storm bands. These gusts could cause isolated power outages, fallen branches, and minor damage to vulnerable structures.

Storm surge is also a risk. Water levels in the a